Some research shows fewer deaths despite omicron subvariants

Do people need the new boosters aimed at these subvariants approved by FDA?

A new research study is titled: Uncoupling of all-cause excess mortality from COVID-19 cases in a highly vaccinated state, published in The Lancet. It was for Massachusetts.

Here are excerpts:

Since March, 2020, excess mortality—the number of all-cause deaths exceeding the baseline number of expected deaths—has been observed in waves coinciding with COVID-19 outbreaks in the USA and worldwide. However, after February, 2022, the reported number of COVID-19-associated deaths decreased despite a notable spring wave of infections primarily due to omicron subvariants (BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, BA.5). Until now, it has been unknown whether the spring, 2022, COVID-19 wave in Massachusetts, USA, was associated with all-cause excess mortality.

Accordingly, we assembled population data (2014–19) and weekly mortality data (January, 2015–February, 2020) provided by the Massachusetts Registry of Vital Records and Statistics (MRVRS) and applied seasonal autoregressive integrated moving averages to project the weekly number of expected deaths for the state for the pandemic period (Feb 3, 2020–June 26, 2022). We summed age-specific mortality to create state-level estimates and additionally corrected for the lower-than-expected state population owing to cumulative excess mortality recorded during the pandemic. Weekly observed deaths provided by the MRVRS are more than 99% complete for all study weeks. Case, wastewater, and hospitalisation data were accessed from publicly available databases. Analyses were conducted with R (version 4.1.2). The MRVRS deemed the study exempt from institutional review board review.

In the 18-week period after BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 subvariants became prevalent (week ending Feb 27, 2022, there have been 0·1 excess deaths per 100 000 person-weeks, corresponding to 134 excess deaths (95% CI –921 to 1189, despite at least 226 857 newly recorded cases, as evidenced by corresponding substantial spikes in SARS-CoV-2 wastewater levels and changes in testing volume. This value corresponds to a 97·3% reduction in excess mortality compared with the 8-week initial omicron (B.1.1.529) wave, during which excess mortality was 4·0 per 100 000 person-weeks (2239 excess deaths; 95% CI 1746–2733), and a 92·7% reduction in excess mortality compared with the combined 26-week delta (B.1.617.2) and delta-to-omicron transition periods, during which excess mortality was 1·5 per 100 000 person-weeks (2643 excess deaths; 95% CI 1192–4094). However, new COVID-19-associated hospitalisations continued to occur during this period, either reflecting background community prevalence or that new COVID-19 cases were less severe or exacerbated chronic medical illnesses enough to require emergency care but not to cause proximate mortality.

MedPage Today did a good commentary on this article titled: Are We Approaching 'Herd Safety' With COVID-19? — Amid spring Omicron surge, highly vaccinated Massachusetts did not observe excess mortality.

“Despite the emergence of the latest Omicron subvariants -- BA.2, BA.2.12.1, BA.4, and BA.5 -- Massachusetts observed no significant excess mortality this spring, researchers said.”