Hey Joel! Thanks for sharing. I’ve been wondering if anyone has done a similar statistical analysis on the unvaccinated, never been infected? I think it would be interesting number to have to add to the comparison.
I don’t have the time to do a more I depth analysis so I just did a quick running of numbers for November of 2020 (because I was able to find number of reported “cases” for that month easily in a news article: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-november-cases-united-states/)
Am I doing the math correct here…
The US has a little over 330M people
Prior to November, there were approximately 9M cases so… 330M - 9M = 321M
There are 30 days in November.
321M x 30 = 9.63B risk days
So the rate of cases / risk days is approximately 4M case / 9.63B risk days
To reduce it down to the 100K days rate, you divide both by 96,300.
Which leaves you with 41.5 cases / 100K risk days.
Would I be doing the math correctly? Is that how it works? Does only taking a look at 1 months worth of data skew things too much?
I know that this is technically the original strain of the virus circulating so it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. But I don’t know how to get numbers for the Delta variant because they don’t distinguish between unvaccinated with previous infection and unvaccinated without previous infection.
Hey Joel! Thanks for sharing. I’ve been wondering if anyone has done a similar statistical analysis on the unvaccinated, never been infected? I think it would be interesting number to have to add to the comparison.
I don’t have the time to do a more I depth analysis so I just did a quick running of numbers for November of 2020 (because I was able to find number of reported “cases” for that month easily in a news article: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-november-cases-united-states/)
Am I doing the math correct here…
The US has a little over 330M people
Prior to November, there were approximately 9M cases so… 330M - 9M = 321M
There are 30 days in November.
321M x 30 = 9.63B risk days
So the rate of cases / risk days is approximately 4M case / 9.63B risk days
To reduce it down to the 100K days rate, you divide both by 96,300.
Which leaves you with 41.5 cases / 100K risk days.
Would I be doing the math correctly? Is that how it works? Does only taking a look at 1 months worth of data skew things too much?
I know that this is technically the original strain of the virus circulating so it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. But I don’t know how to get numbers for the Delta variant because they don’t distinguish between unvaccinated with previous infection and unvaccinated without previous infection.