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Dec 21, 2021·edited Dec 22, 2021

Hey Joel! Thanks for sharing. I’ve been wondering if anyone has done a similar statistical analysis on the unvaccinated, never been infected? I think it would be interesting number to have to add to the comparison.

I don’t have the time to do a more I depth analysis so I just did a quick running of numbers for November of 2020 (because I was able to find number of reported “cases” for that month easily in a news article: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-november-cases-united-states/)

Am I doing the math correct here…

The US has a little over 330M people

Prior to November, there were approximately 9M cases so… 330M - 9M = 321M

There are 30 days in November.

321M x 30 = 9.63B risk days

So the rate of cases / risk days is approximately 4M case / 9.63B risk days

To reduce it down to the 100K days rate, you divide both by 96,300.

Which leaves you with 41.5 cases / 100K risk days.

Would I be doing the math correctly? Is that how it works? Does only taking a look at 1 months worth of data skew things too much?

I know that this is technically the original strain of the virus circulating so it isn’t an apples to apples comparison. But I don’t know how to get numbers for the Delta variant because they don’t distinguish between unvaccinated with previous infection and unvaccinated without previous infection.

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